Solid Tuesday Hold

The Hobbit increased 6% on Tuesday to gross $8 million. The Monday-Tuesday hold is far better than The Return Of The King's 4% decline, and it was down just 19% week on week, compared to ROTK's 23% weekly dip. BOTFA's second full week in theatres should come to around $73 million, which equates to a 22% drop from the week before: a smaller decline than all of the LOTR movies at this point. If it does indeed make this number, then BOTFA will pass the $200 million mark late Thursday night.

For this weekend, early predictions range from $20-$25 million, with my personal prediction being $22 million. This should be enough for The Hobbit to retain first place, although it faces strong competition from Unbroken and Into The Woods. BOTFA remains on track to earn between $285-$290 million by the end of its run.

Over $7 million on Monday

The Last movie in The Hobbit film trilogy earned an estimated $7.5 million on Monday. It dropped 31% from Sunday which is slightly steeper than The Return Of The King's Sunday-Monday 29% decline, however it was down just 16% from the previous Monday while ROTK was down 26% week on week.

Over 13 days BOTFA has earned $175.5 million and as long as it continues to hold up as well as or better than ROTK, it will make $285 million.

Strong Second Weekend

Box Office reports that The Battle Of The Five Armies made $40.9 million to remain in first place in its second weekend at the domestic box office. New stiff competition from Unbroken and Into The Woods, failed to take the box office crown from The Hobbit and they had to settle for second and third place instead.

The Hobbit dipped by a healthy 25% from its opening weekend, which is more than the 21% for The Two Towers but far better than the 30% decline for The Return of The King. This a great sign for BOTFA going forward.

In its first 12 days BOTFA has made $168 million,  which is 19% ahead of The Desolation Of Smaug and on par with An Unexpected Journey, however by this point, the previous instalments hadn't had the Christmas bump yet.

It's now lagging ROTK by 24%. If it continues to play out like ROTK, The Hobbit will earn $285 million, though if it soon appears to be significantly less front-loaded, it will finish within shouting distance of $300 million.

International

After earning $89.2 million over the weekend, the foreign gross of The Hobbit stands at $405 million and $573 million worldwide. It opened in Austrailia and Poland with massive three day totals of $10.1 million and $5.3 million respectively, which are franchise highs in both markets. After an $11.7 million third weekend in Germany, it is now the highest grossing film of the year there. BOTFA only has two more major markets left to be released in: It expands to Argentina on January 1st and it arrives in China on January 23rd.

While it is earning astounding numbers across nearly all its markets, some are posting lower grosses than The Desolation of Smaug at this point, while others are posting much higher numbers than previously. This should still result in $700 internationally though, giving BOTFA a good chance at reaching the $1 billion milestone.

The Hobbit at Christmas

The Final film in The Hobbit film trilogy opened on 17th December this year: exactly 9 years after the final film in The Lord of the Rings Trilogy. As both opened on exactly the same date (and on a Wednesday), direct daily box office comparisons can be made:

The Battle of The Five Armies was never going to match The Return of the King's mighty $377 million at the domestic box office, due to a number of factors such as the mixed response to the Hobbit trilogy and the unpopular decision to split the book into 3 movies. Predictions ranged anywhere from $230 million to $300 million. On its opening day, BOTFA earned $24.5 million; this cannot be compared to the previous two Hobbit instalments as they opened on a Friday. After experiencing a steep second day drop, it rebounded greatly on Friday. Since then, it has experienced similar daily percentage holds to ROTK. This is a good sign for the film as if it plays out like ROTK, it will earn around $275 million, which would be a very solid result.

Its opening day gross was 29% below ROTK, and it currently running 26% behind it, so already BOTFA is showing slightly better holding power than ROTK. The big test though, will come this weekend. Although there are several major films entering the market this weekend, The Hobbit is expected to come out on top with around $35 million for a second weekend drop of 35%, which would be steeper than the 30% drop for ROTK. A more generous but realistic figure would be $40 million which equates to a far more manageable 26% drop from its $54 million opening weekend.

International

In terms of international box office, BOTFA is currently earning similar amounts to the previous Hobbit instalments. It probably won’t match ROTK’s $742 million, but it should earn $700 million and may match An Unexpected Journey’s $714 million. Add in $280 million from the domestic box office, and BOTFA may be on its way to $1 billion worldwide.



UPDATE:

Box Office reports that BOTFA rose 19% to $15.7 million on Boxing Day. This suggests that The Hobbit is heading for a $40-$45 million weekend. This would be a very solid result as it would result in a far less steep second weekend drop compared to ROTK. It would also be a much higher second weekend gross compared to the previous two Hobbit instalments, although they did not benefit from the Christmas boost at this point.

Although a lot can happen between now and the end of its run, there’s a very good chance that BOTFA will earn over $280 million. One website has now ambitiously predicted a $300 million cume, although that seems very unlikely at this point.