The Hobbit at Christmas

The Final film in The Hobbit film trilogy opened on 17th December this year: exactly 9 years after the final film in The Lord of the Rings Trilogy. As both opened on exactly the same date (and on a Wednesday), direct daily box office comparisons can be made:

The Battle of The Five Armies was never going to match The Return of the King's mighty $377 million at the domestic box office, due to a number of factors such as the mixed response to the Hobbit trilogy and the unpopular decision to split the book into 3 movies. Predictions ranged anywhere from $230 million to $300 million. On its opening day, BOTFA earned $24.5 million; this cannot be compared to the previous two Hobbit instalments as they opened on a Friday. After experiencing a steep second day drop, it rebounded greatly on Friday. Since then, it has experienced similar daily percentage holds to ROTK. This is a good sign for the film as if it plays out like ROTK, it will earn around $275 million, which would be a very solid result.

Its opening day gross was 29% below ROTK, and it currently running 26% behind it, so already BOTFA is showing slightly better holding power than ROTK. The big test though, will come this weekend. Although there are several major films entering the market this weekend, The Hobbit is expected to come out on top with around $35 million for a second weekend drop of 35%, which would be steeper than the 30% drop for ROTK. A more generous but realistic figure would be $40 million which equates to a far more manageable 26% drop from its $54 million opening weekend.

International

In terms of international box office, BOTFA is currently earning similar amounts to the previous Hobbit instalments. It probably won’t match ROTK’s $742 million, but it should earn $700 million and may match An Unexpected Journey’s $714 million. Add in $280 million from the domestic box office, and BOTFA may be on its way to $1 billion worldwide.



UPDATE:

Box Office reports that BOTFA rose 19% to $15.7 million on Boxing Day. This suggests that The Hobbit is heading for a $40-$45 million weekend. This would be a very solid result as it would result in a far less steep second weekend drop compared to ROTK. It would also be a much higher second weekend gross compared to the previous two Hobbit instalments, although they did not benefit from the Christmas boost at this point.

Although a lot can happen between now and the end of its run, there’s a very good chance that BOTFA will earn over $280 million. One website has now ambitiously predicted a $300 million cume, although that seems very unlikely at this point.